Jobs hold, searches stretch

Of the 7.1 million people the Bureau of Labor Statistics counted as unemployed in September, 1.9 million had been looking for 27 weeks or more. That is 27.1 percent of everyone out of work, up from 23.6 percent a year earlier. The September jobs report, released October 2, describes a market where the people inside are staying put and the people outside are waiting longer.

Employers are keeping who they have

Separations are quiet. Layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.6 million in August, a rate of 1.0 percent, and quits held at 3.1 million (BLS, JOLTS, released September 29). Initial jobless claims came in at 197,000 for the week ending September 26, with a four-week average of 200,000, per the Department of Labor. Challenger, Gray and Christmas counted 43,281 announced job cuts in September, down 18 percent from 52,881 in August and, in the firm’s words, the “lowest total for the month since 2022”. Those are announced plans rather than actual separations, but they point the same way.

Hiring is running thin

BLS counted 29,000 new payroll jobs in September, against an average monthly gain of 45,000 over the prior twelve months. It revised July to a loss of 10,000 and August to a gain of 133,000, so the two months together are 60,000 lower than first reported. Hires in the JOLTS data stood at 5.2 million in August, a 3.3 percent rate, little changed over the month and the year. Challenger logged 90,787 announced hiring plans in September, down 23 percent from a year earlier and “the lowest September total since 2011”.

Longer waits than a year ago

The unemployment rate in the BLS release was 4.2 percent and has stayed between 4.1 and 4.3 percent since March. What moved, year on year, is time. BLS Table A-12 puts the median spell of unemployment at 11.5 weeks in September, against 10.1 a year earlier. The mean spell was 24.8 weeks, up from 24.1 a year earlier, though on the month the mean fell from 26.3 while the median rose from 11.4, so the two measures moved in different directions. The broader BLS U-6 measure eased to 7.6 percent from 8.1 a year earlier. The wide count is easing while the long-term share climbs.

Where the slack sits

Health care added 17,000 jobs in September, slower than its 33,000 average over the prior year, BLS reported. Financial activities are down 129,000 since a peak in May 2025, with insurance carriers and related activities accounting for 90,000 of that. BLS put professional and business services down 9,000 and information down 10,000 on the month.

A low layoff count tells a worker with a job that the floor is steady. It tells a worker without one much less. CoBlack keeps a search running against openings drawn from employer career pages and ATS feeds. For the person already out, the number that matters is the week count, and it is higher than it was a year ago.